Russians will hate Putin pretty soon
I gave the main message away already in the title. Read further if you wonder why I think so.
I’m not the first to point out that Russia weakened itself a lot during one year because of the 2022 invasion. Let’s shortly summarise:
- Europe is moving away from Russian oil and gas, which was the important source of money for Russia
- Lots of western companies left Russia, no more investments plus lots of sanctions, Russians in general became poorer
- Russian army lost lots of its potential (to put it mildly) and no one believes the myth of the “second army in the world” anymore
- Lots of Russians died in the bloody meaningless battles
- Russia instead of being respected or at least feared became a mocked pariah
- NATO became stronger, Western powers became more united
- The country with the second amount of Russian speakers in the world (after Russia itself) quickly switches to Ukrainian, friendly attitude of Ukrainians changed to hatred. “Brotherly nations” no more. “Russian world” shrinks
- Russian Orthodox Church lost its ground in Ukraine, which is part of general loss of Russian influence in Ukraine
What did Russia gain? When Putin was asked about this question he answered with a stupid smile:
We gained some territories [1]
As if Russia desperately needed more territories (it’s the largest anyway). And as if Russia actually controlled the territories it claims to have gained (it annexed the territories it still does not control [2]).
Disregarding everything said above — according to most of the researches about 75% of Russians still support Putin and his foreign policy. But I’m sure this will change.
Russians love Putin because of his masculinity, because he is a real man and because he makes Russia great. They listen to propaganda TV and probably believe (or want to believe) everything which is told there. But as soon as the bubble pops, as soon as the failures could not be hidden behind the TV screen, as soon as they realise how much Russia actually lost, there will be a disappointment. I think “disappointment” is not a strong word. It will be a disappointment in the power of ten. They will see Putin as what he actually is — a person who ruined the whole Russian greatness. The one who lost everything: the image of a strong Russia, respect, influence, economy. The one who broke “the centuries long Russian-Ukrainian brotherhood” (that’s what Russians believe, Ukrainians don’t believe this legend anymore).
Be sure, after propaganda bubble pops, many of those 75% percent will say that they were lied to, that they could not do anything, that Putin is guilty of this horrendous war. They will say that they always loved Ukrainians and they really thought that they were protecting Ukrainians against some Nazi junta. Probably they will continue telling the fairy tales about “We are one nation with Ukrainians, we love them” without understanding how Ukrainians would react on these words (“F*ck off” will be the most obvious reaction, if you’re interested). They will despise Putin and put all of the Russian sins on a single person. Which is by the way very logical in a Russian way of thinking, when a single person is responsible for the whole country. Samoderzhavie (самодержавие) they call it.
Can this mental switch happen? Yes, sure. And it did happen in the past. I don’t know whether Russians actually loved Nicolas II but he was killed. They revered Stalin, but after his death all his monuments were demolished. Actually it’s very interesting to check the difference in opinion in Russia about the leader while he still was a leader and after it. Putin will have the same fate.
But even modern history shows this mental switch. Remember what Russians said about invasion into Ukraine before the actual invasion?
We will never invade, these are Western fairy tales, we love Ukraine and we will never do it.
Remember what they said after the invasion?
We had to do it, it was inevitable, we were forced to do it, everyone was simply blind to Russian requests, this was the only possible solution, Ukraine is ruled by Nazis
What will happen after Russia loses? Let me guess.
It was all Putin’s war, it was his mistake, we should never had invaded Ukraine, this was absolutely insane, a meaningless war between the brotherly nations that unfortunately we could not stop in the totalitarian state built by Putin
Russians liberals are already pushing this last line. It will be supported by many Russians soon. By those same Russians who are now happy with killing Ukrainians.
But I hope Ukrainians won’t listen to what Russians say. Their words are meaningless, as time showed. Ukrainians should never ever trust Russians again.
[1] Talking about new territories: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDbLYT0zFkc
[2] Read about it here: https://medium.com/@navpil/russian-absurd-annexation-of-zaporizhzhia-8945365ebe67