Dmytro Polovynka

Prepare for a nuclear war (unless Ukraine wins)

Since this is an important topic, I will not ask you to wait till the end of the article. Main contents follows:

  1. Ukraine possessed third largest arsenal of nuclear weapons in the world (more than China, France, Great Britain, India and Pakistan combined)
  2. In 1994 Ukraine gave up all its nuclear weapons, giving it to Russia.
  3. In turn Russia, together with USA and UK, promised to never attack Ukraine and protect it if it is threatened by a nuclear attack.
  4. In 2014 Russia annexes Crimea and there is almost no international reaction.
  5. In 2022 Russia attacks Ukraine with rockets, bombs, tanks, artillery. Russia kills Ukrainian citizens.
  6. Russia blackmails Ukraine and the world with a nuclear blast. And many people say: “Ukraine, surrender, we don’t want a nuclear war”

Main questions: Suppose Ukraine loses or surrenders:

More countries will have nukes. Nuclear war will be inevitable.

Now a bit longer story.

Budapest memorandum

In 1994 the Budapest memorandum was signed. Under terms of this document Ukraine gave up it nuclear arsenal, which was really huge. And three countries, namely Russia, USA and UK promised to respect Ukrainian borders and never attack it. You may read Budapest Memorandum [*] yourself — it’s pretty short.

Budapest memorandum was in line with the much larger treaty — in particular the Non-Proliferation Treaty [*] which is aimed to make a world safer, not to produce more nukes, gradually disarm and in the future to have no nukes at all. Not all the countries signed this treaty, notable exceptions being India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea, all nuclear states. But on the other hand four countries already disarmed — Belarus, Kazakhstan, South Africa and Ukraine.

Surely, the wish for the peaceful world was not the only reason Ukraine signed this treaty. There was probably some political pressure from the richer countries to disarm. Maybe there were some economical or political gains from signing the treaty. However the main point is that technically Ukraine is the most peaceful country in the world, because by now no other country disarmed that drastically. And now this country is under a severe attack. What is the most cynical part of this, is that Ukraine was not attacked by some random country. But that the guarantor of peace, namely Russia, attacked Ukraine.

Russia attacks Ukraine

Another reason why Ukraine signed this treaty was that Ukraine did not believe it would be attacked by any neighbouring state, including Russia. However Russia almost broke the Budapest memorandum in the 2003. Not even after ten years after the memorandum was signed. What happened in 2003? There was a dispute regarding Tuzla island [*]. However the armed conflict did not start. So Budapest memorandum was only broken in 2014.

In 2014 Russian armed forces occupied Crimea. This was a shock for both Ukraine and international community. Ukrainian army was not prepared for such conflict. Shootings did not start. Crimea was annexed bloodlessly.

Wait, but how exactly Russian forces got into the Crimean peninsula? There was no bridge that time! Actually, Russian forces were always present in Crimea. Ukraine and Russia signed a treaty, under which Russia could have its naval base placed in Crimea. Wait what? Ukraine allowed a Russian military base on a Ukrainian territory and Russia attacked Ukraine from that same military base? How could they? Quite cynical, isn’t it? Russians in their typical manner answer “Well, you are to blame. Why did you allow a foreign military base in your country?”

Strangely enough there was very little reactions from the international community except for “deep and grave concerns”. And Germany continued buying more gas from Russia and was building the Nord Stream 2. No real sanctions, no real actions. Already now countries in the world should have thought — “hmm, Ukraine gave it nuclear weapons and part of its territory was annexed by a nuclear power, shouldn’t we get some nukes for us?”

In 2022 Russia attacked Ukraine again, this time in much more aggressive manner. With rockets, bombs, aerial attacks, tanks, genocide etc. And the world tells Ukraine — “surrender, because Russia might nuke you”. I already described in other article, that this logic is insane, but I will reiterate that here. If Ukraine surrenders, no other countries will be willing to adhere to the Non-Proliferation Treaty. You may simply throw that treaty in the drain and prepare for a Nuclear War. A big one now, because all countries will be willing to have nukes. Not in 5 years, no. Probably in 40 or 50. But Nuclear War is inevitable then.

Don’t negotiate with terrorists

PACE called Russian regime a terrorist one [*]. This is not a simple figure of speech. Russia does to Ukraine, and to the whole world for that matter, what terrorists usually do. Whether Ukraine should surrender or Russia will nuke it. Or Russia will nuke somebody else. Surrender or Russia will bomb more civilians.

From the Hollywood movies I remember the principle “never negotiate with terrorists”. Negotiating with terrorists may bring a short term gain. In this case peace-makers want the World War not to start now. They don’t care about the future generations, which is pretty short sighted. Giving up to Russian terror is not making the world safer, vice versa. Because in the long term negotiating with terrorists is always a bad idea. Because it shows, that terrorism works.

Suppose Ukraine surrenders

If Ukraine surrenders, this means that Budapest Memorandum did not work. Non-Proliferation Treaty is for weaklings. Giving up the nuclear weapons is always a bad idea. Obtaining nuclear weapons is always a good idea. It’s better to have nukes than not to have them, because even if one country doesn’t want nukes and war, one never knows whether the neighbouring country thinks the same.

All countries in the world see the Ukrainian situation. Neighbouring countries see it as well. Nuclear blackmail works — so neighbouring countries can secretly get nukes. If North Korea could get them — everyone could get them. If neighbouring countries can secretly get nukes, my country should also secretly get nukes, not to be blackmailed in the future. This is the thinking of basically every country in the world. Or if the country actually has the plans to invade a neighbouring country (I guess Russia is not the only one) — they can obtain nukes with this particular purpose. Now everyone would know that nuclear blackmail works.

No one wants a nuclear war. Except…

Except that Russia is not a sane country. If you hear what they say on their TV — it seems that they like the idea of a nuclear war.

First of all Putin (Russian president) blackmailed the world with nuclear weapons several times openly, once even telling that he was not bluffing.

The same guy (Putin) once said his famous phrase, that in case of a nuclear war:

Мы как мученики попадём в рай, а они просто сдохнут

We will go to heaven as martyrs, and they will simply die [die is not the exact translation of сдохнут — the original word has a negative connotation, because the word is usually used with animals dying, not humans]

The other famous TV host famously said that Russia can transform USA into a radioactive dust []. And the same host threatened United Kingdom with the Poseidon Nuclear Rocket [].

If Russians are fine with a Nuclear War they may start it later anyway. They don’t need Ukraine as a reason to start it.

But does Russia posses operating nukes?

This is an open question. I think that most of the Russian nukes are not operational. We already saw its army. It was very large on paper. But not in reality. Now we see that mobilised soldiers don’t have uniforms, because 1.5 millions uniforms disappeared somewhere.

It would be very sad if the world succumbs to a Russian nuclear threat, which is very virtual in nature. What if Russia bluffs? Plays high stakes with the bad hand expecting other players to fold? When Ukraine wins we will find out. Otherwise we risk a nuclear war in the future.

Oh, and a last thing. The best thing to prepare for a nuclear war is to move to New Zealand. No need to thank me for the advice.

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